イスラエルとハマスの戦争では、「死者数」がいつも以上に注目されてきた。それは単なる人道的関心にとどまらず、国際社会における立場の正当化、非難、あるいは介入の根拠として機能している。とりわけ、ハマスの保健省（MoH）が発信し、国連機関や報道機関が引用してきた数字は、「70％が女性と子ども」というセンセーショナルな割合によって、イスラエルの軍事行動を“ジェノサイド”と結びつける根拠として繰り返し用いられてきた。
だがこの数字は、実際にどのようなデータに基づいているのか。2025年4月、イギリスのヘンリー・ジャクソン・ソサエティ（HJS）が発表した報告書『Hamas Casualty Reports Are a Tangle of Technical Problems』は、この問いに真正面から向き合ったものである。
■ MoHとGMO、二つの顔を持つ統計
HJS報告書が明らかにしたのは、ハマスには二種類の死者数データが存在するという構造だった。一つはMoHが病院を通じて収集する医療ベースの実数データ、もう一つは政府メディアオフィス（GMO）が出す国際向け広報用の統計だ。
MoHが実際に保有するリストでは、例えばカン・ユニスでの地上戦（2024年1月〜5月）では、死者のうち女性と子どもが占める割合は34.5％にとどまり、成人男性が65.5％を占めていた。全戦争期間にわたっても、MoHが2025年3月に公開した5万人の名簿では、女性と子どもの割合は51％にすぎない。
それに対してGMOは、常に70％という数字を発信し続けた。これはMoHの元データと矛盾するばかりか、国際報道やNGOの活動における“民間人犠牲”の象徴的根拠となっていた。
■ 増殖する「未確認死者」──15,000人の正体
HJSが特に問題視したのは、MoHが戦時中に追加した15,000人以上の「未確認死者」の扱いである。これは病院記録や遺体検視による確認ではなく、家族がオンラインフォーム（Googleフォーム）で提出した名前がそのまま登録されるという形式で加えられた。
しかも当初MoHは「司法委員会による検証が行われている」と説明していたが、後にこの説明が虚偽であったことを自ら認めた。実際、家族通知によって登録された死者のうち1,800人以上が、後日MoH自身によって削除された。中には生存していた人物や自然死の者が含まれていた。
■ 戦闘員はカウントされない
HJS報告書によれば、ハマスの戦闘員の多くは死者リストから意図的に除外されていた。たとえばハマス指導者ヤヒヤ・シンワルの親族などは、かつてリストに掲載されていたが後に削除されたことが確認されている。
また、死亡した戦闘員の名前をSNSなどで投稿しないようハマス内部で通達が出ていたことも、2014年時点で記録されている。戦闘員の死が秘匿される一方で、子どもや女性が強調される構造は、結果的に「民間人比率の水増し」を招く。
HJSの試算によれば、戦闘員の過少報告を考慮すると、実際の女性・子ども死者の割合は40％を下回る可能性がある。
■ 外部証言との食い違い
国際的な医師団や報道関係者の中には「病院で見た死者の大半が女性と子どもだった」と語る者もいたが、MoHが発表した病院別データはそれと一致しない。
例えば、カマル・アドワン病院では成人男性の死者が女性・子どもの2倍以上に達していた。ヨーロッパ病院では、3,700人の男性に対して子どもは1,200人。現場の印象と統計的実数の乖離が明らかになっている。
さらに、The Lancetなどに掲載された疫学研究は、ハマスが後に発表した死者数の3〜4倍を予測しており、学術モデルの過大推定も別の問題として浮かび上がる。
■ 死者数の「政治的用途」
こうした操作や矛盾は、単なるミスや混乱ではない。HJS報告書が一貫して描いているのは、死者数データそのものが戦略的に設計された「戦争の武器」になっているという構図だ。
ハマスが軍事的には劣勢にある中で、民間人の犠牲を「見せること」こそが国際世論を動かす鍵となる。この「情報空間における勝利」は、軍事的敗北に代わる新たな戦略目標として機能している。
■ 最後に：数字の中立性を問う
もちろん、この報告書自体もまた中立ではない。HJSは親イスラエル的立場を明確に持つシンクタンクであり、報告書全体がイスラエルの軍事行動を相対化する論理構造を持っている。
だがそれでも、「出された数字が信頼に足るものか」「それがいかなる物語に奉仕しているのか」を問うことは必要だ。戦争における死者数とは、単なる統計ではなく、誰が被害者か、誰が加害者かという構図を形づくる力を持った物語装置である。
その装置がどのように操作されるかを追った本報告書は、たとえその立場に慎重な距離を置くとしても、読むに値する分析である。
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