ポーランド「市民パトロール」を燃料とした不正ネットワーク——DFRLabが追ったAI生成コンテンツと反移民言説の増幅構造

ポーランド「市民パトロール」を燃料とした不正ネットワーク——DFRLabが追ったAI生成コンテンツと反移民言説の増幅構造 情報操作

アトランティック・カウンシル(Atlantic Council)のデジタル法医学研究所であるDFRLab(Digital Forensic Research Lab)は、2026年2月11日、ポーランドの移民論争をめぐるオンライン操作を分析した調査報告「Inauthentic Networks Fuel Poland’s Border Vigilante Movement」を公開した。著者はGivi GigitashviliとSopo Gelavaの2名。DFRLabは、世界各地の影響工作・偽情報・ハイブリッド脅威をOSINT手法で追跡・文書化する非営利調査機関で、これまでロシアのDoppelganger作戦、中国のSpamouflageネットワーク、各国選挙を標的とした工作など多数の調査実績を持つ。本報告は、2025年夏から秋にかけてポーランド社会を揺さぶった「市民国境パトロール」現象が、オンライン空間でいかに増幅・歪曲されたかを実証的に追跡したものである。

 調査の問いは明確だ——ポーランドの移民論争がこれほど暴力的言説を帯びた形で拡散したのはなぜか。その答えとして本報告は、現実の犯罪事件を触媒としつつ、AI生成コンテンツ・不正アカウントネットワーク・政治家による未確認情報の増幅という三つの要素が連動したことを示す。

事件の連鎖:オンライン言説爆発のトリガー

 2025年夏、ポーランド・ドイツ国境では右翼活動家Robert Bąkiewicz(ロベルト・ボンキェヴィチュ)が率いる「国境防衛運動」が「市民パトロール」を組織した。彼らの主張は、ドイツ国境警備隊が越境難民をポーランド側に送還する「即時入国拒否」(ダブリン協定や再入国協定によらない第三手続き)に反対し、その実態を監視するというものだった。パトロール活動は車両の停止、国境での移民拘束にまで及び、ポーランド法上は問題ある行為として法的懸念が提起された。Donald Tusk(ドナルド・トゥスク)首相は「国境警備は国家の責務であり、極右活動家の仕事ではない」と明言し、妨害行為に対する罰則を警告した。アムネスティ・インターナショナルも緊急対応を求め、身分証確認や車両捜索は法律上、権限を持つ公務員のみに許される行為であると強調した。

 このパトロール運動の拡大に火をつけたのは、現実の事件の連鎖だった。2025年6月12日、トルン市のPark Glazja(グラジャ公園)でポーランド人女性が外国人に致命的な暴行を受けて死亡した。このベネズエラ人容疑者の事件はポーランド社会に強い衝撃を与え、直後からトルン市内に「市民パトロール」が出没しはじめた。その後、ノヴェ市でコロンビア人が関与する死亡事件も重なり、難民・外国人への敵対感情がさらに高まった。右翼の党Konfederacja(連帯党)はこれらの事件を政府の移民政策の失敗として国民に提示し、7月19日には全国70都市以上で合計110イベントの抗議集会を組織した。

 移民送還の実態を示す数値はこうした社会的反応と大きくかけ離れていた。ダブリン協定・再入国協定の二手続きによるドイツからポーランドへの移民送還数は、2023年の968人、2024年の688人から、2025年1〜6月の314人へと一貫して減少している。他方、ドイツによる即時入国拒否は2024年に9,369人に達しており、その大多数はウクライナ人だった。市民パトロールが訴えた「大量移民流入」という危機感は、統計が示す実態とは乖離した状況に乗っていた。7月7日にはポーランド政府がドイツ・リトアニアとの国境検査を一時的に再開し、この措置は後に2026年4月まで延長されている。

調査手法

 DFRLabはこの問題を定量的に分析するため、市民パトロールおよび反移民運動に関連する15のキーワードとハッシュタグを設定し、Facebook・YouTube・TikTokにおける言及を2025年6月1日から9月15日まで追跡した。この期間に収集した投稿・コメント・動画トランスクリプトは総計37万件超に上る。分析の軸は「オンライン上の不正な活動が、オフラインの市民パトロールとどのように連動したか」という時系列的な相関関係の追跡に置かれている。

AI生成画像による感情動員

 本報告が明らかにした最も注目すべき点の一つは、政治アクターがAI生成画像を動員手段として活用した実態である。

 Konfederacjaが7月19日の全国抗議集会をFacebook上でイベントとして組織した際、その多くのイベントバナーには、炎上する車両・火炎瓶を持つ人物・攻撃的な表情の有色人種男性という構図のAI生成画像が使用されていた。Facebookはイベントに関する透明性情報(名称変更履歴など)を一定程度開示しているが、イベントバナーや投稿に含まれるAI生成・合成画像にはラベルを付与しない。この構造的な欠陥により、ユーザーはオフライン行動への参加を促す感情的に操作された画像に無防備にさらされた。

 Konfederacja党首Krzysztof Bosak(クシシュトフ・ボサク)が反移民集会を宣伝するために使用した画像では、マスクをつけた若者が攻撃者として描かれていたが、これは2023年6月にフランスで起きた抗議活動の際に撮影されたアーカイブ写真の流用だったことが確認された。

 さらに深刻なのは、立法府の議員がAI生成画像を選挙キャンペーンに直接組み込んだ事例だ。2025年7月、PiS(法と正義党)が「違法移民」に関する全国規模の国民投票を求める署名活動を開始した際、PiS国会議員少なくとも3名——Anna Krupka(アンナ・クルプカ)、Patryk Wicher(パトリク・ヴィヘル)、Michał Woś(ミハウ・ヴォシュ)——がFacebook上で同一のAI生成キャンペーンバナーを共有した。バナーには国境を大挙して越える群衆が描かれており、DFRLabの視覚的分析では頭部(黄)・手(青)・耳(ピンク)・顔(赤)の欠損と顔の歪み(緑)という複数のAI操作の痕跡が明確に特定された。現職国会議員が議員活動として偽造画像を公式ページで拡散したという事実は、AI生成コンテンツの政治利用の問題が「フリンジ」な段階を超えていることを示す。

不正アカウントの構造と協調的行動の証拠

 DFRLabは少なくとも7つの右翼反移民Facebookページが、Konfederacjaのバナーを引き剥がす女性を撮影した動画に同一のキャプションを付けて投稿していたことを確認した。投稿のタイムスタンプは微妙にずれており、自動的なクロスポストではないことが示唆されるが、内容の圧倒的な一致から、これらのページが連携ネットワークとして機能していると判断された。

 これらのページの名称は「Everything for Poland」「I Love Poland」「God Honor Homeland」「World of Quotes」「No to Islamization of Europe」「Solid Lawyer」など汎民族主義的・宗教的・規範的な語を組み合わせたもので、より広い層の読者を引き込む設計になっている。不正性の典型的指標として際立っているのは、フォロワー数と実際のエンゲージメントの乖離だ。最も多いフォロワーを擁する「I love Poland」は2026年2月時点で15万人超のフォロワーを抱えながら、個々の投稿へのエンゲージメントはほぼゼロに近い。

 個別アカウント分析として報告書が詳述するPiotr Namysło(ピョートル・ナミスウォ)の事例も注目に値する。このアカウントは、Bąkiewiczが投稿した女性国境警備官の写真を同一テキストとともに6月29日に公開し、9月15日時点で266回シェアされた。アカウントのプロフィール写真はAI生成またはAIフィルタリングの疑いがあり、About欄には「ジャーナリスト」と記載されているが、DFRLabはオンライン上でこの人物の実在を確認できなかった。さらに表示名「Piotr Namysło」とアカウントURL「zygmunt.machalica.7」(別のポーランド人男性名)の不一致が検出された。アカウントURL(ユーザーが変更できない固定識別子)と表示名の乖離は、不正アカウントの一般的な指標とされる。

PATRIOCIグループの解剖——休眠ページの再利用とメディア偽装

 PATRIOCIというFacebookグループは、本調査で最も詳細に分析された増幅ノードである。グループ会員数は1万7,800名に上り、Bąkiewicz本人が頻繁に投稿する主要プラットフォームとして機能していた。Bąkiewiczの通常投稿が10シェア未満にとどまる中、女性国境警備官の写真投稿は256回シェアされており、異常な拡散パターンが明確だ。

 PATRIOCIを作成したのはAlternews(オルタナフス)というページであり、このページは2019年5月以降休眠状態にある。活動期にはロシアの国営メディアRTのコンテンツを定期的にリポストし、虚偽情報を拡散していた経歴が確認されている。

 このグループの運営構造は特に精緻に分析されている。PATRIOCIを管理するのは28名の管理者と2名のモデレーター、計30名のアカウントである。うち22名が実在するポーランドメディアを名乗るか、報道機関を装って提示しており、それぞれのAbout欄にウェブサイトURLを記載している。ドメインの多くは.pl(ポーランド)、一部は.eu(欧州連合)および.uk(英国:DziennikPolski.eu、GazetaPolska.uk、londyn24.uk)だが、これらのウェブサイトは軒並み非活動状態であるか、ドメインが売却中の状態だった。実在メディアを名乗りながら空のドメインを「About」欄に記載するというこの手口は、正統性の外観を演出しつつ実体のないページ群を管理する典型的な偽装パターンである。

 さらにDFRLabは、PATRIOCIの管理者ページの大多数が、POLACY(ポラツィ)という別のFacebookグループも運営していることを確認した。同グループの増幅機能は、OpenSearchによるメタデータ分析で定量化されている——Bąkiewiczの投稿がFacebookページで公開されてからわずか4秒以内にPATRIOCIグループに転載されていたことがタイムスタンプデータから判明した。さらにそのページ公開から10秒以内に、少なくとも4つのグループへのクロス投稿が完了していた。このミリ秒単位での協調は、人手による手動操作では説明が難しい同期的挙動を示している。PiS所属の国会議員Piotr UścińskiとŁukasz MejzaもPATRIOCIに投稿していることが確認されており、政治家とこのネットワークの接点も文書化されている。

暴力的言説の定量化と政治的増幅が生み出した連鎖

 本報告が提示する定量データの中で、言論の質的変容を示す数値として特に重要なのが以下のものだ。収集した37万件のデータセットの中で、「shoot」「kill」というキーワードを含む投稿・コメントは100件を超え、「invasion(侵略)」を用いた投稿は250件超、コメントは430件超に達した。移民を「ゴキブリのように」「アヒルのように」撃つべきだという明示的な要求、国境警備官や軍人に対して躊躇なく発砲するよう促すコメントが散見された。Konfederacja欧州議会議員Tomasz Buczekは、兵士には国境を守るために移民に向けて発砲する権利があると公言した。暴力的言語の対象は移民だけにとどまらず、移民を「密輸している」として非難されたドイツ警察官への銃撃を求める投稿も確認された。

 政治的増幅が未確認情報と組み合わさることで暴力的言説が急騰したプロセスを示す典型例として、2025年8月26日の事案がある。ポーランド・ベラルーシ国境での越境を阻止しようとしたポーランド兵が負傷したとの報告が拡散すると、PiS議員Bartosz Kownacki(バルトシュ・コヴナツキ)とSebastian Kaleta(セバスティアン・カレタ)の2名が文脈を欠いた形でこの情報をFacebookで増幅した。DFRLabはこの日、データセット内で移民への銃撃を求めるコメントの大半がこの2つの投稿の下に集中していたことを確認した。しかし、ポーランド当局が後に発表した調査結果によれば、兵士の負傷は移民が原因ではなく、兵士自身の手の中でスタン手榴弾が爆発したことによるものだった。政治家が未確認情報を感情的フレームで即座に増幅し、それが暴力的言説の急増を引き起こし、後に事実が否定されるという一連の連鎖は、情報操作研究が「情報を武器化した政治的増幅」と呼ぶパターンの典型例である。

限界と研究上の含意

 本報告はいくつかの限界を率直に認めている。プラットフォームの透明性の欠如——特にFacebookにおけるページ所有者情報と管理者履歴の非開示——により、PATRIOCIネットワークを一元管理する中心的主体の特定は不可能だった。アカウントの一部は通常のコンテンツを投稿し、一般的なグループにも参加しており、AIによって「本物らしく」設計された偽装プロフィールを既存の研究手法で決定的に識別することには限界がある。AIが大規模かつ個別に最適化されたプロフィールを生成することで、研究者の識別コストは今後さらに増大すると報告書は警告する。

 データ収集期間(〜9月15日)の直後には、9月9日のロシア製ドローンのポーランド領空侵犯(NATO第4条援用に発展)という重大事件が起きており、この事件がオンライン言説に与えた影響の追跡は本報告のスコープ外に置かれている。また先述のようにドローン侵犯後には「ウクライナのフォルスフラッグ」「ウクライナが挑発」「ウクライナの戦争はポーランドの戦争ではない」という三つのナラティブが不正ネットワークによって増幅されたこと、2025年末のNawrocki大統領によるウクライナ難民支援法案の拒否権行使が反ウクライナ言説の新たな波を引き起こしたことは、DFRLabの別調査が文書化している。


 本調査が提示したのは、移民問題という社会的に敏感な争点が、現実の犯罪事件を起点として、AI生成コンテンツ・休眠ページを再利用した偽装ネットワーク・政党組織による動員・現職議員による未確認情報の増幅という多層的な構造の中で急速に暴力的言説へと転化するメカニズムである。プラットフォームがAI生成コンテンツへのラベリングを怠り、広告主でも政治家でもない匿名の管理者群がメディアを名乗って情報空間を運営し、それを国会議員が公開チャンネルで活用するという連鎖は、個々の要素を単独で規制しても全体として機能しうる構造的問題として浮かび上がっている。

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