2025年のドイツ連邦議会選挙では、AfD（ドイツのための選択肢）が予想以上の得票を獲得し、議席を伸ばした。選挙前から、XやTikTokのアルゴリズムがAfDに有利な形で情報を拡散している可能性について、いくつかの調査報告が発表されていた。
本記事では、Global Witness、DFRLab & AlgorithmWatch、ISD（Institute for Strategic Dialogue）の3つのレポートを取り上げ、それぞれの調査内容を整理し、共通点と相違点を明らかにする。
1. 各レポートの焦点の違い
3つのレポートは、AfDの拡大にソーシャルメディアが関与している可能性を指摘しているが、着目点は異なる。
① Global Witness レポート
- 主な主張: XとTikTokのアルゴリズムが、非党派の新規ユーザーにAfD寄りのコンテンツを推奨している。
- 手法: 新規アカウントを作成し、CDU・SPD・AfD・緑の党に均等に興味を示した上で、各プラットフォームの「For You」フィードを分析。
- 主な発見:
- Xでは64%、TikTokでは78%の推薦コンテンツがAfD支持のものだった。
- Instagramでは推薦のバイアスが少なかったが、XとTikTokでは右派コンテンツが圧倒的に多かった。
→ 非党派のユーザーにも偏った推薦が行われている点を問題視。
② The Musk Effect（DFRLab & AlgorithmWatch）
- 主な主張: Elon MuskのAfD支持がXでのAfDの影響力を急増させた。
- 手法: AfD政治家の投稿の閲覧数・エンゲージメントを分析し、Muskの発言との相関を調査。
- 主な発見:
- MuskがAfDを支持した直後、AfDのXでの投稿閲覧数は8倍に増加。
- AfD関連コンテンツの拡散は、ドイツ国内よりも英語圏（特にアメリカのMAGA層）で活発だった。
→ Muskの影響によるAfDの国際的な可視化に着目。
③ ISD レポート
- 主な主張: TikTokのアルゴリズムがAfD関連のコンテンツを過剰に推奨し、選挙関連コンテンツの透明性が低い。
- 手法: 13の異なるペルソナ（政治的立場や関心の異なる架空ユーザー）を作成し、TikTokの推薦コンテンツとそのラベル付けを分析。
- 主な発見:
- 最初に表示される政党関連コンテンツの49%がAfDのものだった。
- 選挙関連コンテンツの45%が適切にラベル付けされていなかった。
→ TikTokの透明性欠如と、AfDコンテンツの優遇を問題視。
2. 共通点と相違点
共通点
- AfDのコンテンツが他の政党よりも優遇されている可能性
- XとTikTokのアルゴリズムの不透明性
- EUのデジタルサービス法（DSA）との関係
- ソーシャルメディアが選挙結果に影響を与える可能性
相違点
| レポート | 焦点 | 主な問題提起 |
|---|---|---|
| Global Witness | 非党派ユーザーへの推薦バイアス | 中立的な新規ユーザーでもAfDコンテンツが優先表示される |
| DFRLab & AlgorithmWatch | Muskの影響と国際的拡散 | Muskの支持によってAfDの影響力が急拡大し、英語圏でも拡散 |
| ISD | TikTokのアルゴリズムの透明性欠如 | AfD関連コンテンツが過剰に表示され、選挙コンテンツのラベル付けも不十分 |
3. まとめ
これらの3つのレポートからは、ソーシャルメディアのアルゴリズムがドイツの選挙戦において特定の政党（AfD）を強く可視化していた可能性が示唆される。Global Witnessは非党派ユーザーへの推薦バイアス、DFRLab & AlgorithmWatchはElon Muskの影響と国際的な拡散、ISDはTikTokの透明性欠如に着目しており、それぞれ異なる視点から同じ傾向を指摘している。
この現象が意図的なものなのか、それともユーザーの関心の反映なのかについては、明確な結論は出ていない。ただし、いずれのレポートも「アルゴリズムの透明性が不足している」と指摘しており、EUのデジタルサービス法（DSA）の観点からも今後の検討課題となる可能性がある。
ソーシャルメディアが選挙プロセスに与える影響については、引き続き注視する必要がある。
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