ドイツ連邦選挙を狙うロシアの影響作戦――サイバーセキュリティ企業 Recorded Future のレポートを読み解く

ドイツ連邦選挙を狙うロシアの影響作戦――サイバーセキュリティ企業 Recorded Future のレポートを読み解く 情報操作

 2025年2月23日に予定されているドイツ連邦選挙に向けて、ロシアによる影響作戦が活発化している。サイバーセキュリティ企業 Recorded Future の調査部門 Insikt Group が2025年2月13日に発表したレポート 「Stimmen aus Moskau: Russian Influence Operations Target German Elections」 は、この影響作戦の詳細を明らかにしている。本記事では、同レポートの主要なポイントを紹介しながら、ロシアがどのような手法を使い、どのような影響を狙っているのかを整理する。


ロシアの影響作戦の全体像

 本レポートによれば、現在のところロシアの影響作戦がドイツ有権者の行動に大きな変化をもたらした証拠はない。しかし、ロシアの作戦は主に 「社会的分断の助長」「反EU・反NATO感情の醸成」「選挙制度への不信感の拡散」 を目的としており、以下の5つの主要な作戦が実施されている。


1. Doppelgänger(ドッペルゲンガー):メディアの偽装と情報操作

 Doppelgänger は、西側メディアを模倣する影響作戦であり、以下の手法を用いている。

  • 新たに7つの偽ニュースブランドを立ち上げ
    • Kriminal Radar(犯罪レーダー):移民による犯罪を誇張する内容を掲載。
    • Militärblatt(軍事速報):ドイツの軍事政策や安全保障に対する不安を煽る。
    • Östlicher Wind(東風):東ドイツの懐古主義や反EU、反米感情を強調。
    • Tageswirtschaft(経済日報):ドイツ経済の不安定さを誇張。
    • Stolzvolk(誇り高き国民):愛国主義やAfD支持を強調。
    • HerzHeim(心の故郷):伝統的価値観を推進。
    • WeltWahl(世界選択):国際ニュースを操作してドイツの孤立を助長。
https://cms.recordedfuture.com/uploads/stimmen_02_2cf712eb95.png より
  • 既存メディアを模倣した偽サイト
    • spiegel[.]bz(DER SPIEGELの偽サイト)
    • welt[.]cx(Weltの偽サイト)
    • rrn[.]com[.]tr(Reliable Recent Newsの偽サイト)
  • SNSのBlueskyに進出し、影響力を拡大

2. Operation Overload:AIディープフェイク動画を活用した選挙不信の拡散

 この作戦では、AIを利用したディープフェイク動画を作成し、選挙制度への不信を煽っている。

  • 偽ニュースの例
    • 「ミュンヘンの印刷所で不正な投票用紙が発見された」(Euronewsの偽装)
    • 「CIAがドイツ選挙期間中のテロ警告を発した」(USA Todayの偽装)
  • 手法
    • AI音声クローンを利用して政治家の偽インタビュー動画を制作
    • SNSで拡散し、選挙への不信感を醸成
  • 影響
    • 一部の動画は数百万回再生され、大きな影響を及ぼしている

3. CopyCop:AI生成記事を用いた偽ニュースサイトの大量展開

 CopyCop は、AIを利用して大量の偽ニュースを作成・配信するネットワークである。

  • 94の偽ニュースサイトを発見
    • 例:informant-info[.]denrtv[.]online
  • 偽ニュースの内容
    • 「ドイツ政府がウクライナとの戦争を準備している」
    • 「AfD支持者が弾圧されている」
  • 実際の事例
    • nrtv[.]onlineに投稿された動画(2025年1月30日)
      → 「ドイツ副首相と国会議員が名画を盗み、ウクライナに売却した」 という虚偽情報を流布

4. Operation Undercut:AfD支持を推進する情報操作

  • 9gagを利用したキャンペーン
    • AfD支持を訴える投稿を増加させ、若年層への影響を狙う
  • 偽メディアの利用
    • ReutersやVoice of Americaを装い、AfD支持のプロパガンダを拡散

5. Foundation to Battle Injustice:政治家への誹謗中傷

 この組織は、政治家に対するデマを広めることで、ドイツの政局に混乱を引き起こそうとしている。

  • 虚偽の「内部告発」記事
    • 「政府が言論統制のために『デジタル強制収容所』を計画」
    • 「緑の党とCDU/CSUが未成年の性虐待を合法化しようとしている」
  • SNSや親ロシア系サイトへの転載
    • 記事を拡散することで信憑性を高める情報操作

今後の見通しと対応策

 ロシアの影響作戦は今後も続く可能性が高く、特に2025年に予定されているチェコ、イタリア、ルーマニア、ポーランドの選挙に向けた活動が強化されると考えられる。

対策として重要なポイント

  1. 偽情報の拡散を抑制
    • メディアや研究者はロシアの影響作戦を監視し、正確な情報を提供することが求められる。
  2. SNSやウェブサイトの対応
    • 偽ニュースサイトのドメイン削除、SNSプラットフォームの監視強化。
  3. AIによる偽情報の検出
    • AIを活用したディープフェイクや偽ニュースを識別する技術の開発が急務。

まとめ

 今回のInsikt Groupのレポートは、ロシアがどのような手法でドイツ選挙に介入しようとしているのかを詳細に明らかにしている。

  • Doppelgänger:メディアの偽装
  • Operation Overload:AIを活用したディープフェイク
  • CopyCop:大量の偽ニュースサイト
  • Operation Undercut:AfD支持の情報操作
  • Foundation to Battle Injustice:政治家への誹謗中傷

 これらの影響作戦は、ドイツだけでなく欧州全体の政治環境にも波及する可能性がある。選挙を狙った偽情報戦への警戒が、ますます重要になってきている。

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